Technical Signals and Treasury Liquidity Fuel Bullish Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin predicted to reach a record-breaking $137,000 by the third quarter of 2025, according to leading crypto analysts. The forecast draws strength from a mix of bullish chart patterns and the U.S. Treasury’s continued liquidity injections, which could provide the fuel needed for a historic price rally.
Analyst Sees Bullish Breakout Formation on Bitcoin Chart
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto expects a major breakout as Bitcoin forms a bullish pennant on the daily chart—a technical setup known to precede sharp price surges. The formation suggests a potential climb to $137,000 between July and August 2025.
To validate this target, Bitcoin must clear and sustain levels above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Currently, the price faces resistance at the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. A breakout above these indicators would confirm strong momentum and open the path toward six figures.
Treasury Liquidity Surge Adds Momentum to Bitcoin Rally
Macroeconomic factors add further strength to Bitcoin’s outlook. Since February 2025, the U.S. Treasury has injected over $500 billion into the market by reducing its Treasury General Account (TGA) balance. This move follows the January 2 debt ceiling breach that forced the Treasury to tap into reserve funds to keep operations running.
Macroeconomist Tomas explained that this TGA drawdown raised net Federal Reserve liquidity to $6.3 trillion, a level that historically boosts asset prices. Although other markets have yet to respond, Bitcoin appears increasingly reactive to this surge in liquidity.
Understanding the Treasury General Account’s Role in Crypto
The TGA serves as the U.S. government’s main account at the Federal Reserve, used for managing taxes, debt payments, and government expenses. When its balance shrinks, that capital flows back into the broader economy.
Tomas pointed out that the TGA balance has dropped from $842 billion to $342 billion since February 12, releasing $500 billion into markets. If political negotiations continue past April, this drawdown may exceed $600 billion by summer, amplifying its market impact.
Tax Season May Slow Liquidity Briefly
While tax season could temporarily reduce market liquidity, Tomas expects the Treasury to resume drawdowns by May. If the current pace continues, net liquidity may reach $6.6 trillion by Q3—setting the stage for Bitcoin to benefit from a favorable macro environment.
Bitcoin Correlates Closely With Global Liquidity
According to analyst Lyn Alden, Bitcoin often behaves like a barometer for global liquidity. Her research shows that Bitcoin moves in sync with global capital flows 83% of the time—outpacing assets like gold and U.S. equities in correlation.
Historical examples from 2022 and 2023 reveal that TGA drawdowns often led to speculative rallies in Bitcoin and altcoins. If history repeats, Bitcoin could ride the current liquidity wave toward its highest price ever.
Resistance Levels Hold, But Momentum Builds
Despite the bullish setup, Bitcoin must still overcome major resistance zones before it can reach $137,000. Titan of Crypto emphasized that a daily close above all key EMAs is necessary to confirm trend strength.
As traders monitor support levels and potential accumulation zones, momentum continues building. A successful breakout could attract institutional capital, further accelerating the move.
Technical and Macro Alignment Supports $137K Scenario
Several factors reinforce the projection of a six-figure Bitcoin price:
- A bullish pennant pattern on the daily chart
- The need for a confirmed breakout above the 200-day EMA
- A $600B+ TGA drawdown injecting liquidity
- Potential net liquidity hitting $6.6 trillion by August
- Bitcoin’s 83% historical correlation with global liquidity
- Increased investor appetite for risk assets
Conclusion: $137K Target Hinges on Breakout and Liquidity
The $137,000 price target for Bitcoin hinges on two key conditions: a confirmed technical breakout and sustained liquidity support from the Treasury. If these align in the coming months, Bitcoin could surpass its $69,000 all-time high and establish itself as the top-performing risk-on asset in a high-liquidity environment.
